一個抱持信心的理由

在五月回顧裡，我提到Travis Hafner的BABIP遠低於xBABIP（擊入場內的球的預期安打率）

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP	BA
2004	18.8%	38.2%	43%	.356	.293	.311
2005	20.2%	43.1%	36.8%	.348	.306	.305
2006	21.2%	38.6%	40.3%	.326	.308	.308
2007	17.5%	47.8%	34.7%	.298	.295	.266
2008	25%	41.4%	33.6%	.275	.332	.217

Beyond the Box Score最近有一篇文章提到了印地安人隊打者的BABIP與xBABIP，發現除了Sizemore之外，幾個主要打者的BABIP都低於xBABIP（該文的xBABIP是以LD%直接加.12）。我在寫回顧時也有發現這個現象，不過只有特別指出Hafner的部分，因為他的差距最大、帳面成績最讓人失望。

以下我列出幾位主要打者2004之後的逐年數據做為參考，xBABIP(1)是用0.73*LD%+0.24*GB%+0.15*FB%來計算，xBABIP(2)則用LD%+.120計算。所有數據都是在2008年印地安人隊第59場比賽（含）之前，也就是6月4日之前的數據，同時只列出100打席以上的球員。

C Victor Martinez

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	XBABIP(2)
2004	16.4%	40.3%	43.3%	.290	.291	.284
2005	21.1%	47.6%	31.4%	.327	.315	.331
2006	21.6%	44.0%	34.4%	.345	.315	.336
2007	20.1%	41.6%	38.2%	.312	.304	.321
2008	24.7%	47.5%	27.8%	.327	.336	.367

B Ryan Garko

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2006	16.6%	42.4%	41.1%	.333	.284	.286
2007	18.6%	37.7%	43.8%	.322	.291	.306
2008	17.8%	39.5%	42.8%	.286	.288	.298

2B Asdrubal Cabrera

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2007	19.7%	43.9%	36.4%	.331	.304	.317
2008	21.1%	43.1%	35.8%	.250	.311	.331

3B Casey Blake

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2004	17.6%	42.9%	39.6%	.312	.291	.296
2005	20.9%	37.0%	42.1%	.268	.305	.329
2006	23.2%	40.2%	36.7%	.325	.321	.352
2007	17.7%	39.4%	43.0%	.315	.288	.297
2008	19.9%	40.4%	39.7%	.269	.302	.319

SS Jhonny Peralta

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2004	26.3%	47.7%	26.3%	.316	.345	.383
2005	19.7%	45.3%	35.0%	.349	.305	.317
2006	19.0%	47.4%	33.6%	.329	.303	.310
2007	18.7%	46.8%	34.6%	.329	.301	.307
2008	17.4%	45.8%	36.8%	.252	.292	.294

LF David Dellucci

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2004	17.1%	40.2%	42.7%	.279	.285	.291
2005	16.5%	40.5%	43.0%	.281	.282	.285
2006	19.0%	37.1%	43.9%	.339	.294	.310
2007	19.9%	43.3%	36.9%	.276	.305	.319
2008	14.4%	39.0%	46.6%	.245	.269	.264

CF Grady Sizemore

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2004	19.2%	44.2%	36.5%	.300	.301	.312
2005	24.5%	44.5%	31.0%	.335	.332	.365
2006	19.8%	33.3%	46.9%	.342	.295	.318
2007	20.7%	32.8%	46.6%	.334	.300	.327
2008	14.1%	36.2%	49.7%	.271	.264	.261

RF Franklin Gutierrez

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2006	23.4%	43.0%	33.6%	.336	.324	.354
2007	14.9%	43.3%	41.8%	.326	.275	.269
2008	19.6%	33.0%	47.3%	.315	.293	.316

OF Ben Francisco

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2007	18.6%	46.5%	34.9%	.350	.300	.306
2008	17.4%	32.6%	50.0%	.386	.280	.294

INF Jamey Carroll

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP(1)	xBABIP(2)
2004	23.1%	48.2%	28.6%	.320	.327	.351
2005	25.7%	53.5%	20.8%	.306	.347	.377
2006	22.7%	38.7%	28.5%	.342	.301	.347
2007	24.9%	43.5%	31.6%	.257	.334	.369
2008	21.6%	44.6%	33.8%	.284	.315	.336

我們可以看到，xBABIP(1)高於BABIP的包括了：Martinez (.009)、Garko (.002)、Cabrera (.061)、Blake (.033)、Peralta (.040)、Dellucci (.024)、Carroll (.031)以及Hafner (.057)。

xBABIP(1)低於BABIP的則有Sizemore (.007)、Gutierrez (.022)、Francisco (.106)。

另外還有一些有趣的地方，看看逐年記錄，大部分打者過去的BABIP實際上都比xBABIP高。我不確定這代表什麼意思，知道的人歡迎留言回應。

總之，該文作者認為，印地安人隊打者的BABIP普遍都低於期望，在未來是有可能逐漸回歸正常的，同時他也指出，印地安人隊透過除了安打以外的其他方法上壘的能力在美聯排第三，而平均每打席耗球數更在美聯排名第一，這代表印第安人隊仍然有一條相當有耐心的打線，一旦安打開始出現，得分自然會增加。